Notes on
uncertainty.

Prediction market strategies, backtests, and live trading results.

We document the models, data, and execution behind each experiment—what worked, what failed, and what we learned from trading live.

Offset waves of translucent blue-gray glass, an abstract illustration of signal delay.

Why Our Kalshi Spot-Lag Trading Strategy Failed

A two-week test of Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto markets, and what 1,029 live orders revealed about signal timing, execution costs, and model calibration.

Oct 30, 202616 min read